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Prediction for CME (2023-01-11T17:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-11T17:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23262/-1
CME Note: This is a large, bright and wide CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The likely source is seen as clear moving/opening field lines beyond the SE limb in STEREO EUVI A 195 after 2023-01-11T16:35Z, followed by high rising post-eruptive arcades on the limb in EUVI A 195 an hour later. (Note: There also was an eruption in the SE on the Earth-facing disk seen in AIA 304 starting 2023-01-11T20:45Z (with a significant-area dimming south of the AR 3184(S13E41) seen in AIA 193) but this eruption was several hours later than the start of the CME and thus likely unrelated to it). CME was most likely backsided. This arrival is still being analyzed.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-16T05:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

A wide south-east coronal mass ejection (CME) was first detected in LASCO
C2 imagery at 17 UTC on Jan 11th. The eruption was accompanied by a large
on disk dimming later that day. The bulk of this eruption is estimated to
miss Earth, but there is a minor chance for a glancing blow in the UTC
morning of Jan 16th. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Lead Time: 88.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-01-12T12:21Z

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